Paxton raises $18M in third quarter

Paxton’s fundraising rises as Texas Senate contest tightens

Provpnadvice.com – Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton collected $18 million between July and September, a sharp increase in fundraising as his Senate campaign faces a competitive and increasingly expensive general election race against Democrat James Talarico.

The third-quarter total is twice the $9 million Paxton brought in during the preceding three months. The surge adds more money to a contest that had already become the costliest Senate race of the election cycle, with national political groups and donors treating Texas as a potentially pivotal battleground.

Paxton won the Republican nomination after defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, setting up a race in which both parties see unusually high stakes. Democrats are openly hopeful that the contest could produce their first statewide victory in Texas in decades, while Republicans have watched polling that has shown Paxton behind Talarico.

Democratic fundraising remains a major factor

Talarico had not released a third-quarter fundraising report at the time of Paxton’s announcement. His campaign, however, raised more than $30 million during the second quarter, underscoring the financial strength Democrats have brought to the race.

Fundraising does not settle an election, but it gives campaigns the ability to sustain television advertising, digital outreach, field operations and voter-contact efforts over a long and highly scrutinized campaign. The sums being raised in Texas also reflect the degree of national attention now directed at a state that has long been considered a Republican stronghold in statewide contests.

A senior adviser to Paxton framed the latest total as evidence of support across the state.

“Republicans from all corners of Texas have given to the campaign because they know what’s at stake,” said Nick Maddux, senior advisor to the Paxton campaign, in a release.

Paxton’s improved quarterly number gives Republicans additional resources as they work to unify supporters after a hard-fought primary. His campaign must also contend with questions about whether his record as the state’s top prosecutor could affect his appeal beyond the Republican base.

National groups step into the contest

Outside spending has already become a significant part of the campaign. MAGA Inc., the political organization aligned with President Trump, committed $10 million to the Texas race in early September. That investment illustrated the concern and interest surrounding a seat Republicans had expected to hold more comfortably.

Republican leaders also placed Paxton at the center of attention during their midterm convention in Dallas last month. The gathering was intended to showcase party priorities and rally activists, but Paxton later suggested that the event had not helped his standing. In audio shared by the New York Times, he said the convention “dropped our numbers.”

Trump has offered Paxton support, even after recently calling him a “pain in the a—.” The president is expected to appear with Paxton at a rally in San Antonio later this week. Such an event could help energize Republican voters and reinforce Paxton’s ties to Trump, whose endorsement and political standing remain influential in Texas GOP politics.

The rally may also highlight a central calculation for the Paxton campaign: motivating conservative voters while expanding support among Texans who may be less persuaded by the attorney general’s record or by national partisan messaging. Talarico’s campaign, meanwhile, has the opportunity to use its fundraising advantage to keep attention on the general-election contrast rather than the Republican primary.

Polls and race ratings point to a close finish

Recent polling has added urgency to both campaigns. Decision Desk HQ’s polling average places Talarico nearly three points ahead of Paxton, following a narrower separation between the candidates during the summer.

Election forecasters have also revised their view of the contest. The Cook Political Report moved the race from a Republican-leaning classification to “toss up” in August. Decision Desk HQ likewise regards the contest as effectively even, though its model gives Talarico a 56 percent chance of winning the seat.

Those estimates are not predictions of the final outcome, but they demonstrate how much the race has changed from expectations that Texas would remain securely in Republican hands. A small polling gap can shift quickly, particularly in a statewide election where turnout, advertising and late-breaking developments may matter substantially.

For Paxton, the $18 million third-quarter haul is a meaningful response to concerns about his financial position and polling deficit. For Talarico, the task is to maintain the fundraising pace and political momentum that have helped place Democrats in contention. The result will help determine whether Texas remains a reliable Republican Senate state or delivers one of the cycle’s most consequential surprises.