In a bold and unprecedented move, Ukrainian commanders have sent their last reserve troops across the border into Russia. This strategic decision has captured global attention and raised numerous questions about its potential impact on the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
The Context of the Ukrainian Deployment
Since Russia escalated its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian and allied forces have sporadically crossed the Russia-Ukraine border for brief, high-profile raids. These incursions, often referred to as counter-invasions, have primarily served to embarrass Russian leaders without achieving significant military objectives. However, the latest developments suggest a shift in strategy that could have far-reaching implications.
A Bold Move into Kursk Oblast
Yesterday, elements from at least two Ukrainian army brigades exploited a gap in Russian defenses around the village of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, located on the Russian side of the northern border. Reports indicate that these forces did not include pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters, contrary to initial assumptions. Within a day, hundreds of Ukrainian troops from the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades, supported by artillery, drones, and air defenses, advanced nearly 10 miles into southern Russia. They successfully routed local Russian forces and captured Sudzha along with several other villages.
The Significance of the Sudzha Attack
This operation marks a significant achievement for an army that has been primarily on the defensive for the past year. The Ukrainian forces have been struggling to mobilize sufficient manpower to counter relentless Russian assaults along the eastern front line. The inability to fully staff brigades defending front-line towns in the east has posed a serious challenge to Kyiv’s efforts to maintain control over the remaining free territories in Donetsk Oblast.
Strategic Implications and Potential Gains
Despite these challenges, the Ukrainian army deemed the potential gains from the Sudzha attack worth the risks. John Helin, a Ukraine expert with the Finnish analysis group Black Bird Group, expressed uncertainty about the ultimate goal of this operation. According to him, Ukraine has concentrated elements from two to four brigades in the area, which are critically needed in the east.
Possible Motivations Behind the Northern Offensive
There are several theories about the motivations behind this northern offensive. One possibility is that the Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv aims to compel the Kremlin to shift troops away from eastern Ukraine. This could potentially slow down Russian advances on that front. However, for this diversionary strategy to be effective, the Kremlin would need to redeploy a significant number of regiments from the east.
The Risk of a High-Stakes Gamble
If the Russian forces in the north can halt the Ukrainian advance without borrowing regiments from the east, the Ukrainian gambit will fail. It’s also possible that the Ukrainian attack is not a diversion but a serious effort to capture and hold Russian territory. This could be aimed at gaining leverage in future peace negotiations, trading occupied Russian territory for parts of Ukraine currently under Russian control.
Diplomatic and Military Ramifications
Alternatively, Ukrainian planners might not be focusing on hypothetical peace negotiations. They may genuinely hope to sustain an ongoing invasion of Russia, despite the high risks involved. Emil Kastehelmi of Black Bird Group suggests that the Ukrainian forces could attempt follow-up operations, creating confusion and forcing Russia to react. However, this hinges on the availability of additional forces.
The Challenges of Sustaining an Offensive
Ukrainian commanders face the daunting task of reinforcing units under pressure while preventing breakthroughs. Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, highlights the challenges posed by the stretched-thin Ukrainian forces along the 700-mile front line. The danger of further Russian breakthroughs is growing, especially in the east.
The Cost of Offensive Operations
Attacking out in the open is inherently riskier and costlier than defending from prepared positions. Offensive operations risk higher casualties, which could further strain the already thinly spread Ukrainian forces. Maintaining a favorable attrition ratio is crucial for Ukraine, given the manpower situation. Heavy losses in this operation could complicate future efforts.
Current Status and Momentum
For now, the Ukrainian brigades in Kursk have the momentum. They have shot down two Russian helicopters, destroyed tanks, and captured numerous Russian troops. The Russian forces appear to be in disarray, but this could change as they regroup and bring in additional forces. Compared to a year ago, Russia now has greater conventional capabilities, better command and control, and conscript units that can be deployed.
Observing and Waiting
All outside observers can do now is watch and wait. This bold and risky attack could potentially turn the tide of the war along one front. Alternatively, it could result in the loss of Ukraine’s few remaining spare troops in a doomed border raid. Time will reveal the true outcome of this high-stakes gamble.
FAQs
What is the significance of the Ukrainian forces’ advance into Kursk Oblast?
The advance into Kursk Oblast marks a significant achievement for the Ukrainian army, which has been primarily on the defensive for the past year. It demonstrates their capability to conduct offensive operations and potentially disrupt Russian plans.
Why did Ukrainian commanders choose to attack Sudzha?
The attack on Sudzha could serve multiple purposes, including compelling the Kremlin to shift troops away from eastern Ukraine, gaining leverage in future peace negotiations, or sustaining an ongoing invasion of Russia.
What are the potential risks of this offensive operation?
Offensive operations are inherently riskier and costlier than defensive ones. The Ukrainian forces risk higher casualties, which could strain their already stretched resources and complicate future efforts.
How might this offensive impact the overall conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
The outcome of this offensive could influence the broader conflict by potentially slowing down Russian advances in the east, creating confusion among Russian forces, and providing Ukraine with leverage in future negotiations.
What are the challenges faced by Ukrainian commanders in sustaining this offensive?
Ukrainian commanders must reinforce units under pressure, prevent breakthroughs, and maintain a favorable attrition ratio. The stretched-thin Ukrainian forces along the 700-mile front line pose significant challenges.
Conclusion
The Ukrainian commanders’ decision to deploy their last reserve troops across the border into Russia is a bold and high-stakes gamble. The success of this operation could potentially turn the tide of the war, while failure could result in significant losses. The world watches and waits to see how this daring move will unfold and shape the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
