Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

The success of ceasefire talks in Pakistan depends on the United States and Iran finding mutual incentives to halt the conflict. Both nations have compelling reasons to pause the fighting, yet the primary hurdle to achieving this truce remains a complete lack of trust, minimal overlapping objectives, and the aggressive actions of Israel, America’s key ally in the conflict, which intensified its strikes on Lebanon.

Donald Trump, the current U.S. president, has already framed the war in past tense, heralding a victory and seeking an exit strategy. His agenda includes a state visit from King Charles later this month, followed by a summit with China’s President Xi Jinping in May, and midterm elections in November. With the U.S. summer holiday season approaching, Trump also aims to stabilize petrol prices, which have risen sharply since the conflict began. High-profile events and political cycles are increasingly incompatible with prolonged warfare.

Iran’s leadership, however, has its own motives for seeking an end to the conflict. Despite its unyielding defiance and continued capability to deploy missiles and drones, the regime has endured significant losses, including economic paralysis in key cities, and requires time to recover. The Iranian government’s social media warriors have been flooding platforms with AI-generated videos mocking Donald Trump, but these efforts cannot mask the regime’s vulnerabilities. The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, and his family on 28 February has left his son Mojtaba in a critical position, with speculation about his survival following the attack.

Republican Vice-President JD Vance now leads U.S. representatives in negotiations with adversaries that Trump’s team once believed they had defeated. “A capital V military victory,” as U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth phrased it, has not translated into lasting geopolitical dominance. The war ignited by the U.S. and Israel has already begun to shift the balance of power in the Middle East. As long-term consequences emerge, this transformation will accelerate.

Military strikes have severely weakened Iran’s armed forces and damaged its infrastructure, but the regime remains intact. While the damage is extensive, the survival of its leadership suggests that regime change is not imminent. The millions of civilians affected by the conflict now look to these talks as a potential turning point. Yet, without consensus on broader issues, the ceasefire may only be a temporary reprieve.

The latest challenge centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route. Keeping it closed grants Iran leverage over global economic stability, making its restoration the central focus of the negotiations. The U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran has disrupted the waterway, once used by hundreds of ships daily, and now demands resolution to prevent further economic strain.

“A capital V military victory,” as U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth phrased it.