Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

As Lebanon once again finds itself in the throes of conflict, I recall a conversation with President Joseph Aoun at the Baabda Palace. This modernist structure sits atop a hill, offering a sweeping view of Beirut. Aoun, a retired military commander, assumed office after a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a militia and political party supported by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had been weakened and was facing isolation domestically, prompting Aoun to pledge its disarming.

Despite Aoun’s optimism, the division over Hezbollah’s weapons persists as a key issue in Lebanon. “I was born an optimist,” he remarked during our meeting last August. A fragile ceasefire had been brokered in November 2024, ending the war with Israel. Yet, Israeli strikes continued daily, targeting individuals and groups linked to Hezbollah. In some regions, the fighting never ceased, with Israeli drones occasionally passing overhead near my home in east Beirut.

For Hezbollah’s backers, the group is a shield against Israeli aggression, seen as a relentless force seeking to seize Lebanese territory. Critics, however, argue that Hezbollah prioritizes its Iranian allies, thrusting Lebanon into wars it does not need. The 2024 conflict escalated when Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in February. Israel retaliated with air strikes and a new ground operation in southern Lebanon.

President Aoun, aiming to halt the violence, proposed direct negotiations with Israel. This was a bold move for two nations that lack mutual recognition. Israel hesitated until last week, after the US brokered a ceasefire with Iran and Israel’s air campaign killed over 300 Lebanese in a single day. Ambassadors from both countries are set to meet in Washington on Tuesday, focusing on a potential ceasefire.

Hezbollah’s legacy and the struggle for control

Founded in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon, Hezbollah emerged as a resistance force. The group has long been funded, trained, and armed by Iran, with dismantling Israel as a core objective. The Taif Agreement of 1989 aimed to disarm all militias and establish power-sharing among Lebanon’s diverse sects. But Hezbollah, framing itself as a movement against occupation, retained its weapons.

Israel withdrew troops from southern Lebanon in 2000 after an 18-year presence. Yet, territorial disputes lingered, and UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war, demanded Hezbollah’s disarmament—a goal never fully achieved. Designated as a terrorist organization by the UK and the US, Hezbollah operates as a political party, holding seats in parliament and government, while also running schools and hospitals in areas where state authority is weak.

With limited authority over Hezbollah, Aoun faces a dilemma. His administration defends the “state monopoly on arms,” insisting it holds the key to peace. But Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, has refused to discuss a comprehensive disarmament. Aoun warns that forced removal of weapons could reignite violence. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he stated during our August meeting. As Israeli attacks continue and Hezbollah remains unmoved, the path to lasting peace feels uncertain.