As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

UK Military Size Shrinks as Defense Spending Under Scrutiny

Former NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson has raised concerns over the UK government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR), claiming it has placed national security at risk due to insufficient investment. In a recent critique, he emphasized:

We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.

BBC Verify has examined the current scale of the UK’s military forces.

Historical Reduction in Personnel

Since the end of the Cold War in 1990, the UK Army has shrunk from 153,000 regular troops to 73,790 today. The 2025 SDR proposed maintaining the regular force above 73,000, yet the Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported a 40% drop in enlistment applications in 2025 compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the number of reservists has fallen from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 currently.

Naval and Air Force Transformations

The Royal Navy’s fleet has decreased from 48 major combat vessels in 1990—comprising 13 destroyers and 35 frigates—to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers today. A recent incident highlighted concerns about readiness when the Navy took weeks to deploy HMS Dragon to Cyprus to support a Royal Air Force (RAF) base. The RAF has transitioned from over 300 combat jets in 1990 to a modern fleet of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 Joint Strike Fighter F-35 Lightning II aircraft, which are more advanced but fewer in number.

Drones and Technological Shifts

Unmanned aerial systems, or drones, have emerged as a critical component of the UK’s air defense capabilities, a technology absent in 1990. The threat from drones was notably demonstrated in the Ukraine conflict, where they now surpass traditional artillery in casualties. Analysts stress the need for increased investment in such systems, though the MoD has not yet matched this demand.

Government Spending Ambitions

Addressing Lord Robertson’s criticisms, the government asserts it is pursuing “the largest sustained defense spending increase since the Cold War.” However, this target is seen as modest, given the long-term decline in defense budgets since the Berlin Wall’s fall. The MoD aims to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying defense spending by April 2027, with a goal of 3% in the next parliamentary session. Meanwhile, the UK has committed to a NATO objective of 5% GDP on “national security” by 2035, blending core defense with infrastructure protection and civil preparedness.

Procurement Challenges

The MoD oversees 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives, underscoring its role in military procurement. In December, the National Audit Office (NAO) reviewed its performance, marking 12 projects as “Red”—a classification indicating successful delivery appears unachievable. The NAO also noted that the MoD has consistently struggled to meet deadlines, costs, and performance standards over the years. For projects exceeding £20 million, it currently takes an average of six and a half years to finalize contracts.

Lord Robertson’s specific critique focuses on the disparity between defense and welfare spending. While working-age benefits outpaced defense funding in the mid-1980s, the trend has reversed, with welfare expenditure projected to reach 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade. This rise is partly driven by increased claims for Personal Independence Payments (PIP), though the exact reasons for the surge remain debated among researchers.