The checkered history of US regime change operations

The Checkered History of US Regime Change Operations

Throughout history, multiple US leaders have deployed troops to topple leaders in foreign nations. This strategy has yielded both successes and controversies. In the ongoing conflict with Iran, former President Donald Trump initially framed regime change as a core objective. At the start of the current war, he stated that Tehran must no longer threaten the US with nuclear or conventional weapons, and the Islamic leadership should be ousted. However, as the conflict progressed, Trump and other officials cited shifting motivations for the strikes. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently emphasized that the present conflict was “not a so-called regime change war.” Despite this, the US’s long history of such interventions suggests the original goal may still influence the operation.

Cold War Legacy of Regime Change

During the Cold War (1947–1989), the US executed 72 operations to alter global power dynamics. A 2019 study found that 64 of these were covert, with a roughly 40% success rate. The 1953 coup in Iran, led by the CIA and MI6, exemplifies this approach. The agency removed Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, installing Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Yet, this new leader later became a symbol of US influence, eventually being ousted during the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The regime that emerged in its place now faces the current airstrikes.

“They believed that regimes like Iraq’s would be relatively easy to replace after they were overthrown,” said US historian Joseph Stieb.

Even when regime changes appear successful, they often bring new challenges. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, following Saddam Hussein’s fall, was marked by a premature declaration of victory. President George W. Bush claimed the mission was complete, with a banner on the USS Abraham Lincoln reading “Mission Accomplished.” However, the occupation failed to deliver lasting peace, as state institutions weakened and Iran-backed militias fueled regional unrest.

Arab Spring and the Libya Intervention

When the Arab Spring ignited in 2011, hopes for democratic change surged across North Africa. In Libya, the US swiftly aligned with opposition groups, including the National Transitional Council. A coalition led by the US, France, and the UK launched airstrikes under NATO’s Operation Unified Protector. By October, Gadhafi was killed after a drone and fighter jet targeted his convoy. Yet, 15 years later, Libya remains fragmented and unstable, a testament to the complexities of such interventions.

Afghanistan and the Taliban’s Resurgence

Four weeks after the 9/11 attacks, the US initiated “Operation Enduring Freedom” in Afghanistan. The Taliban was quickly displaced, but the US-backed government struggled to maintain control. As international forces, including Germany, reduced their presence in 2014, the Taliban reclaimed territory. In Trump’s final year, a deal was struck to withdraw troops in exchange for guarantees. However, after the full withdrawal under Biden in 2021, the Taliban swiftly reestablished dominance, once again reshaping the region’s political landscape.