How long can Iran continue the war?
How long can Iran continue the war?
Iran’s Defiance Amid International Pressure
Iran has been largely isolated in its conflict with the United States and Israel, relying heavily on its missile and drone capabilities. The nation’s leadership shows no signs of backing down, emphasizing a commitment to defending its interests at any cost. Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, underscored this resolve on the third day of the hostilities, stating that Iran would “defend ourselves, whatever the cost.”
Escalation and Response
The US and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran starting February 28, focusing on eliminating key figures and attacking infrastructure. Despite the loss of several high-ranking officials, the Islamic theocratic government has remained stable. In response, Iran has launched missiles and drones at Israeli and Gulf region targets, including US military installations. The United Arab Emirates reported being hit by hundreds of Iranian projectiles in recent days.
Admiral Brad Cooper, commanding US Central Command, noted that by March 4, Iran had fired over 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones. He criticized the attacks for targeting civilians indiscriminately. A weapons expert, speaking to DW, added that while Iran’s missile stockpile may have diminished due to both its own launches and US-Israeli strikes, the situation remains fluid. Satellite imagery suggests damage to missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and northern Tabriz, with collapsed tunnels indicating destroyed storage sites.
“Mobile missile launchers are now being actively pursued,” the expert said. “What was once challenging five years ago is now feasible thanks to advancements in technology. Still, it’s unclear how many systems have been effectively neutralized.” The exact number of missiles removed from these sites before the conflict and the current count of operational launchers remain uncertain.
Iran’s Resilience and Production Capacity
On March 4, Israeli forces warned that Iran still possesses significant missile-launching capacity, despite ongoing strikes on its facilities. The regime’s ability to sustain the war is bolstered by its capacity to rapidly increase drone production. Russian documents leaked earlier this month revealed Iran can manufacture around 5,000 drones monthly, each launched from a basic platform assembled in hours. These Shahed drones cost several thousand dollars to produce, far less than the $3 million price tag of a US-made Patriot missile.
Analysis from the New York Times, using satellite data and confirmed videos, indicated that Iran targeted US military bases in the Middle East over the weekend and Monday. The strikes aimed to damage communication and radar systems, though the full extent of the disruption is unclear. The US military’s infrastructure is closely guarded, making precise assessments of the damage difficult.
Long-Term Strategy and Outlook
According to Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics, Iran is adopting a strategy of prolonging the conflict. “Iran will try to extend the war and is playing for time,” he said. “The leadership has had time to plan and coordinate their actions. They are clearly preparing for a prolonged engagement,” he added, highlighting the regime’s focus on resilience — the capacity to endure pressure and continue fighting.
“The overarching goal of the Iranian regime is resilience — the ability to persevere, absorb the blows, and keep the struggle alive.”
