Moskowitz, Wasserman Schultz duel progressives in redistricted South Florida

Progressive Challengers Test Incumbent Democrats in Florida’s Redrawn South Florida Seats

Provpnadvice.com – Tuesday’s Democratic primaries in South Florida will put two sitting congresswomen and congressmen to the test against left-wing challengers, all competing in districts that barely existed before this year’s aggressive redistricting overhaul. The contests underscore a broader tension in the party: how far can progressive energy push in districts whose voter demographics skew older and more moderate?

The most consequential matchup pits Rep. Jared Moskowitz against Oliver Larkin in Florida’s brand-new 25th Congressional District, a coastal Atlantic-area seat that Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) currently designates as the state’s only must-win House toss-up. Larkin, endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), is attempting to extend a remarkable run of progressive primary victories into a district that carries substantial Hispanic and Jewish voting blocs and an older median age than the urban blue seats where DSA-backed candidates have thrived.

The Redistricting Backdrop

Florida’s congressional map was redrawn at President Trump’s explicit urging earlier this year, with the state legislature targeting a shift from a 20-8 Republican majority in the delegation to a 24-4 advantage. The effort reshaped dozens of districts across the Sunshine State, forcing incumbents into unfamiliar territory and opening doors for challengers who see the new boundaries as more favorable to their politics.

DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley nonetheless expressed skepticism that Republicans will achieve their full net-four-seat gain.

“I do think there’s a decent chance that Republicans are going to come up short on their net-four seat target,” Skelley said.

He singled out the new 25th District and the Tampa-area 14th District, where Rep. Kathy Castor faces no primary opposition and DDHQ rates the seat “lean Democratic.”

“Moskowitz and Kathy Castor in that Tampa-area seat — those are both winnable for Democrats,” Skelley said. “You can see the combination of the national environment and incumbents who are stronger than the Democratic baseline, and those things coming together, along with a little boost from incumbency to perhaps allow those Democrats to hold on despite everything.”

Moskowitz vs. Larkin: Ideology Meets Demographics

Moskowitz, who has led in polling and fundraising throughout the cycle, is running a more centrist campaign that his supporters argue is the only viable path to holding a battleground district in November. Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale dismissed the playbook that produced DSA wins in Colorado and New York as inapplicable here.

“The things that worked in Colorado or worked in New York, like, it’s just not this district,” Schale said.

Larkin, by contrast, is pitching a working-class economic agenda and downplaying concerns that a left-leaning platform could become a general-election liability in a district with a large older electorate. DSA co-chair Ashik Siddique framed the campaign as evidence of genuine demand for progressive politics outside the usual urban strongholds.

“There is a real hunger, especially in a red state like Florida, for a working-class agenda,” Siddique said, adding that Larkin’s competitive showing would validate that appetite regardless of Tuesday’s outcome.

Skelley cautioned that the demographic mismatch remains a structural problem for left-wing candidates in this particular seat. He noted that past progressive and DSA-type successes have clustered in districts with larger younger-voter populations, and that the odds of Democrats flipping the House “improve” if Moskowitz secures the nomination and carries the district in November.

Wasserman Schultz’s Crowded Broward County Race

Across the state, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz — currently representing the old 25th District — is seeking reelection in the newly drawn 20th District, a solidly blue Broward County seat with a plurality-Black electorate. The district’s composition has drawn multiple Black candidates into the primary, including former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned from the 20th District in April amid allegations of financial misconduct. Cherfilus-McCormick has maintained her innocence, attributing the congressional investigation that prompted her departure to political motives, but her comeback bid faces a packed field.

The most prominent progressive threat in that race is Elijah Manley, a 27-year-old organizer who has distinguished himself in fundraising. Last week he received a campaign endorsement visit from Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a member of the so-called “squad” of progressive House members. Manley is the only candidate besides Wasserman Schultz who has raised more than $1 million in the contest.

Tuesday’s vote in the 20th District is widely expected to effectively determine the seat’s next representative, given the district’s deep Democratic lean and the strength of the incumbent’s name recognition.

The Republican Side of the 25th

In the GOP primary for the new 25th District, well-funded Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer has led in sparse polling. He is joined by former state Rep. George Moraitis and Joe Kaufman, who served as the 2024 Republican nominee against Moskowitz in Florida’s old 23rd District. The outcome of that contest will shape the general-election matchup in what DDHQ views as the pivotal House race in the state.

Together, the two Democratic primaries illustrate the central dilemma of this election cycle: progressive momentum in urban blue districts colliding with the realities of older, more moderate battleground seats that determine whether either party can claim a House majority.