Is Iran’s regime at a breaking point?

Is Iran’s regime at a breaking point?

Despite significant losses in the early stages of the conflict, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have maintained their operational capabilities, according to recent assessments. Analysts suggest that the regime’s power structure, though under strain, has shown resilience, challenging initial predictions of collapse. As the 18th day of hostilities unfolds, the IRGC continues to launch attacks across multiple fronts, targeting the US, Israel, and regional adversaries.

Initial expectations of a major disruption were raised when the US and Israel struck Iran within the first hours of the war, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other key figures. However, experts note that the Islamic Republic’s core authority has not been severely weakened. Habib Hosseini-Fard, a Middle East analyst, explained to DW that “the power structure has overcome the initial shock,” indicating that the regime remains stable despite the challenges.

Iran’s military apparatus, particularly the IRGC, has adapted to the evolving situation. The group’s decentralized command system enables continued operations, even as targets such as Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, leader of the Basij militia, were reportedly eliminated by Israeli strikes. The US Central Command reported over 300 attacks launched by Iran on nations including Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, highlighting the scale of the conflict.

Recent events have underscored the intensity of the confrontation. Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry confirmed intercepting more than 60 drones in its airspace, while the UAE reported casualties from Iranian projectiles. Despite these losses, Iran’s military remains active, as seen in drone and rocket strikes on the US embassy in Baghdad. The persistence of attacks suggests that the regime’s capacity to respond is still intact, according to Hosseini-Fard.

Reza Talebi, another political analyst, emphasizes that Iran’s internal dynamics are more complex than they appear. “Simplistic assumptions about the regime’s collapse are misleading,” he said, pointing to the close alignment between military and ideological factions. The IRGC, he noted, is not just a military force but a central pillar of Iran’s political and economic systems. With up to 200,000 personnel, its influence extends beyond defense, including the Quds Force, which operates abroad, and affiliated militant groups across the Middle East.

The IRGC was established post-1979 Islamic Revolution to safeguard the state’s ideology and prevent coups. Over time, it has transformed from a centralized institution into a networked structure, allowing provincial commands to act independently. “This adaptability explains why attacks continue despite US claims of maximum destruction,” Hosseini-Fard added. The regime’s strategic depth, including underground missile silos, further reinforces its ability to withstand prolonged pressure.

With Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissing the possibility of negotiations, the conflict shows no signs of slowing. The US and Israel have stated that over 15,000 targets have been hit, yet Iran persists in its retaliation, demonstrating the durability of its military and political framework.

“The notion that a period of state weakness would automatically lead to the surrender of military forces does not reflect the structural realities in Iran,” said Talebi. “Ideologically driven actors are deeply embedded in the system, ensuring its survival even amid external pressures.”