The US-Israeli war on Iran is founded on two huge mistakes

The US-Israeli War on Iran Rooted in Two Critical Errors

Over two weeks since Israel and the U.S. launched attacks on Iran, delivering “death and destruction from the sky all day long” as US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth noted, it appears the conflict was rooted in two critical errors.

American Miscalculation: Overestimating the Fragility of Iran’s Regime

The first error stems from the United States’ belief that Iran’s political system could be dismantled through military action. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a televised address following the strikes, claimed that inaction would have allowed Iran to develop “industries of death” that would become unstoppable within months.

“If we had not acted immediately, within a few months Iran’s industries of death would have become immune to any strike,” Netanyahu said on Thursday.

Netanyahu further argued that the attack would create conditions for the Iranian people to rise against their government, aiming to “remove two existential threats: the threat of annihilation by nuclear weapons and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles.” Yet, despite the destruction, Iran’s capacity to strike remains intact.

Israeli Misreading: Underestimating Hezbollah’s Role and Resilience

The second mistake involves Israel’s miscalculation of Hezbollah’s strength and reaction. Initially, the alliance assumed that Iran’s weakened state, following losses in Lebanon and Syria, would make the group vulnerable to swift regime change. However, this assessment overlooked the tenacity of Iran’s regional allies and the rapidity of their countermeasures.

“Our objective is to prevent Iran from developing ballistic missiles that threaten Israel, the United States, and the entire world,” Netanyahusaid during the war.

President Donald Trump added that the strikes had averted a nuclear confrontation, stating: “If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first.” Yet, the evidence suggests the opposite: Iran has since retaliated with attacks on Gulf states and Israel, claiming American casualties and disrupting critical energy routes.

Unforeseen Consequences: Iran’s Persistent Power

Despite the initial optimism, Iran’s government has not collapsed, contrary to expectations. In Tehran and other cities, protests against the Islamic Republic have not materialized as anticipated, and the leadership has managed to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with his son Mojtaba Khamenei, showcasing the regime’s adaptability.

Now, the war’s outcome reveals a paradox: the more Israel and the U.S. aimed to weaken Iran, the more it has consolidated its influence. The continued attacks, coupled with Iran’s strategic strikes, indicate a growing challenge to American dominance in the Middle East.