Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
President Trump claimed the United States possesses an “effectively boundless” arsenal, while his defense secretary insisted Iran faces “no chance” of matching US endurance. Yet, concerns linger over the availability of advanced weaponry. On February 28, “Operation Epic Fury” began in Iran, with the US conducting over 20 distinct strikes across air, land, and sea in the subsequent week. More than 3,000 Iranian targets were hit, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the initial phase.
The Trump administration has projected long-term capability, asserting the conflict could stretch beyond four to five weeks. “Our stockpiles are robust enough to maintain this effort indefinitely,” stated Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a Central Command visit. General Dan Caine echoed this, noting, “Precision munitions are ample for current objectives.” However, Trump’s remarks on social media revealed nuanced challenges. “Munitions are at their peak quality, but we’re not yet fully prepared for the most advanced systems,” he wrote, hinting at limitations in top-tier stockpiles.
Cost Efficiency and Weapon Priorities
Analysts highlight discrepancies in resource allocation. Kelly Grieco, a Stimson Center expert, emphasized that “highest-grade missiles and interceptors face the greatest strain.” She noted, “Stockpiles of these elite systems are under pressure.” Meanwhile, cheaper options like Shahed 136 drones—costing $20,000 to $50,000 each—pose a financial challenge. “Operating a fighter jet for an hour equals the cost of a Shahed drone,” Grieco remarked, stressing the need for more cost-effective solutions.
Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned about Patriot missile depletion. “We’ve already fired 200-300 of these high-end interceptors,” he said, noting that production of the costly Patriot system has slowed. Lockheed Martin, for instance, delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025. “Manufacturing one more would take at least two years,” Cancian added. In contrast, lower-tier weapons like bombs and Hellfire missiles show greater sustainability, according to the same expert.
On March 6, Trump convened with defense firms, announcing plans to boost production of top-tier arms. “Manufacturers agreed to quadruple output,” he shared on Truth Social. Yet, Grieco questioned the significance, stating, “Most of these deals were already public.” The White House confirmed the meeting had been planned for weeks, but the impact on stockpiles remains uncertain.
