US missile hit military base near Iran school, video analysis shows
US Tomahawk Strike Near Iranian School Sparks Debate Over Responsibility
Iranian officials claim 168 individuals, including approximately 110 children, perished when a US Tomahawk missile struck a military facility adjacent to a primary school in Minab, southern Iran. Expert analysis of a video, confirmed authentic by BBC Verify, reveals the missile’s impact on the site. The footage, released by Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, captures the missile moments before it hits the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base. BBC Verify previously corroborated the area’s targeting through satellite images and verified videos.
Video Analysis Indicates US Operation
Experts examining the latest video from Mehr identified a Tomahawk missile, suggesting the attack was orchestrated by the US. They noted that the presence of multiple strikes and the missile’s terminal phase align with a deliberate US operation. Neither Israel nor Iran are known to possess Tomahawk missiles, reducing the likelihood of an Iranian strike causing such extensive damage. An analyst emphasized the small warheads on Iranian missiles make the reported casualties improbable.
“We think it was done by Iran because they’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever,”
stated US President Donald Trump during a news briefing on Air Force One. Meanwhile, CBS reported the US military’s initial assessment implied the attack was likely their responsibility, though it may have been an unintended hit on the school.
Blame and Uncertainty Persist
Iran has accused both the US and Israel of the attack, but neither country has officially confirmed or denied involvement. An Israeli source told CBS News the military was not active near the school at the time. The BBC has requested further comments from the US government on the video’s findings. The footage shows a medical clinic, reportedly part of the IRGC navy, near the school—about 200 meters away—was likely the target.
Bellingcat initially analyzed the video, noting smoke plumes near the school before the Tomahawk missile detonated. This sequence supports the theory that the school was struck alongside other structures in the IRGC compound. Three experts confirmed the missile in the video as a US Tomahawk, citing its terminal phase characteristics. A senior analyst from McKenzie Intelligence Services described the munition as “having all the hallmarks of a US Tomahawk in its terminal phase.”
The Tomahawk, a long-range cruise missile deployable from submarines, ships, and aircraft, has been a staple of the US military for decades. Wes Bryant, a former US Air Force national security analyst, added the evidence of repeated strikes points to a precise US operation. On 2 March, Gen Dan Caine, the US military’s highest-ranking officer, stated Tomahawks were the first missiles fired at Iran during “strikes across the southern flank.” The Department of Defense’s March 4 map illustrates Minab as a target within the first 100 hours of the conflict.
An internet blackout in Iran has hindered independent verification of the event. Restrictions on international journalists have further complicated efforts to clarify what transpired in Minab on 28 February. Despite the confusion, the video analysis and expert assessments continue to highlight the US’s potential involvement in the attack.
