Iran war: Why is Russia not coming to Tehran’s aid?

Iran War: Why Is Russia Not Coming to Tehran’s Aid?

Amid escalating US-Israeli strikes targeting Tehran, the Iranian government—facing dwindling global support—has pinned its hopes on Moscow’s backing. Yet, the alliance between the two nations appears to be waning, leaving Iran with a sense of betrayal. Just hours after the attacks began on Saturday, Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, condemned the strikes as an “unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state.”

While Moscow remains a key ally of Iran, its reluctance to intervene raises questions. Experts note that the partnership is rooted in practical interests rather than ideological alignment. Nikita Smagin, an Azerbaijan-based analyst, highlights that the two nations have collaborated on critical infrastructure, such as the North-South transport corridor—a 7,200-kilometer multi-mode network spanning through Azerbaijan. The Gulf Research Center reports that 75% of this project is now complete, though its strategic value has shifted since Russia severed ties with traditional transit routes in February 2022.

“The North-South corridor has been vital for Russia’s logistics, especially after the Ukraine conflict disrupted its access to Western transit channels,” Smagin said.

Iran has also played a significant role in Russia’s military efforts, notably by supplying Shahed drones since 2023. Julian Waller, a Russia Studies analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, emphasized that these drones transformed the dynamics of the Ukraine war. “Iran’s contribution was instrumental, even as Russia later refined the design and scaled up domestic production,” Waller noted.

Russia’s support extends beyond military hardware. Intelligence exchanges and deliveries of missiles and ammunition have been part of their collaboration. However, Smagin pointed out that the alliance is pragmatic, not ideological. “Russian politicians may not admire Iran, but they see it as a dependable strategic partner,” he explained. “Both are subject to sanctions, unlike Turkey or Egypt, which might be swayed by Western pressure to cut ties.”

Gregoire Roos of Chatham House suggests that Iran has even acted as a mentor to Russia. “Iran’s experience in navigating sanctions has offered Moscow valuable insights,” Roos stated. This relationship, though beneficial, does not translate into active military intervention. “The two nations are not defensive allies,” Waller observed, noting the absence of a formal pact to shield Iran from Israeli attacks.

Tehran had anticipated more than just verbal assurances. Mojtaba Hashemi, a political analyst, said the regime expected “tangible political and military support,” including expanded cooperation and a deterrent message to adversaries. “Russia and China’s focus is on larger geopolitical challenges,” Hashemi argued, “leaving Iran with a mix of weapons and repression tools, but not decisive backing.”

Mohammad Ghaedi, a George Washington University lecturer, believes Iranian leaders anticipated Russia’s hesitation. “Tehran has long questioned Moscow’s reliability,” Ghaedi said, citing former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s claim that “Russia has always sold out the Iranian nation.” President Masoud Pezeshkian’s remarks after a recent 12-day conflict further underscore this sentiment, highlighting the unmet expectations of trusted allies.

Some analysts suggest Russia might benefit from a prolonged conflict in Iran. Roos of Chatham House noted, “A drawn-out war could reduce media attention on Ukraine, easing pressure on Zelenskyy. Additionally, Washington might struggle to sustain its focus on Iran’s fate amidst other global challenges.”