Becerra Holds 6-Point Lead in June 2 California Gubernatorial Primary
Becerra holds 6 point lead as Californians – A recent survey reveals that Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services Secretary, is currently in the lead in the race for California governor. With the June 2 primary election approaching, the Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll indicates Becerra maintains a significant advantage over his competitors, according to data released on Saturday. This positions him as the frontrunner heading into the final phase of the campaign.
Polling Data Shows Becerra’s Growing Momentum
The survey, which sampled 1,000 voters, found Becerra securing 28 percent of the electorate’s backing. Tom Steyer, the billionaire Democratic candidate, trails closely at 22 percent, while Republican Steve Hilton, the former Fox News commentator, lags slightly behind at 21 percent. Another Republican contender, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, holds only 12 percent, reflecting a broader challenge for the GOP in this race.
Becerra’s support has steadily increased over the past few months, marking a notable shift from earlier in the year. In September 2025, he had just 5 percent of the vote, which dipped to 3 percent by March. However, a resurgence occurred in April when Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) withdrew from the race following allegations of sexual misconduct. This event appears to have bolstered Becerra’s position, with his support rising by 7 percentage points in a single month.
“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.
The poll underscores a pivotal moment in the race, as Becerra’s lead signals a potential trajectory toward the November general election. Tom Steyer, despite his current position, remains a formidable candidate with a strong base of support among certain demographics. Steve Hilton, though trailing, still holds a substantial presence within the Republican field, particularly in the Central Valley and other regions where his message resonates.
Voter Commitment and Potential Shifts
The survey highlights the level of commitment among voters, with 76 percent indicating they will definitely support Becerra if he wins the primary. In contrast, 88 percent of Hilton’s backers say they will remain loyal, while 76 percent of Bianco’s supporters express the same certainty. However, a smaller proportion of voters—12 percent—report they might change their minds about either Hilton or Bianco, while 24 percent say they could potentially switch their allegiance to Becerra.
Emerson College Polling also notes that the number of undecided voters has reached a historic low, with just 5 percent of California residents unsure about their choice. This is a marked contrast to last October, when nearly 40 percent of respondents were undecided, indicating a more polarized electorate as the race progresses.
Jungle Primary Dynamics
California’s gubernatorial primary operates as a “jungle primary,” where the top two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November general election. Recent polls have shown Becerra and Steyer locked in a tight contest, with their support levels often fluctuating within a narrow margin. This format allows for a dynamic race, where third-party candidates and underdog contenders can still influence the outcome.
Despite the competition, Becerra’s consistent lead suggests he is well-positioned to carry momentum into the general election. The survey emphasizes that his growing coalition could challenge Steyer’s ability to secure the necessary votes to advance. Kimball noted that Steyer’s path to the November ballot depends on his capacity to mobilize younger voters, a demographic that has shown strong support for progressive policies.
“Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer,” Kimball added.
The poll also reveals a sharp decline in support for Katie Porter, a Democratic candidate who entered the race in September 2025 with 16 percent of the vote. By May, her numbers had dropped to just 5 percent, signaling a struggle to gain traction in the state’s primary. This decline may be attributed to her relatively low profile compared to other candidates, as well as the perception that she lacks a clear message resonating with the broader electorate.
Becerra’s lead in the primary could have far-reaching implications for California’s political landscape. Should he win, he would become the state’s first Latino governor since José Antonio Romualdo Pacheco, who served from February to December 1875. This milestone would highlight the changing demographics and increasing political influence of minority communities in the Golden State.
Survey Methodology and Context
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted between May 27 and May 28, using a sample of 1,000 registered voters. With a 3 percentage point margin of error, the results are considered reliable for gauging public sentiment. The survey also provides insight into voter behavior, showing that almost three-quarters of participants are certain about their choices, while 26 percent remain open to changes on Election Day.
The data paints a picture of a race where key candidates are consolidating their positions, with Becerra emerging as the most consistent choice. However, the presence of Steyer and Hilton means the general election will be highly competitive, particularly if the final results favor a narrow margin. The potential for shifts in voter support remains, especially as the campaign enters its final stretch.
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) recently released its own poll, which also placed Becerra in the lead. This reinforces the notion that his campaign has gained significant ground, particularly among moderate voters who may be looking for a candidate with a strong record of governance. The PPIC poll, along with the Emerson survey, highlights the importance of policy positions and leadership experience in shaping voter preferences.
As Californians prepare to cast their votes, the race remains a bellwether for the state’s political priorities. Becerra’s lead, coupled with the narrowing field of potential opponents, suggests a compelling narrative for the November election. The final days of the primary will likely see increased campaigning, with candidates focusing on key issues such as healthcare, climate policy, and economic growth to sway undecided voters.
