Xi meets Kim: China reaffirms support for North Korea’s nukes

China’s Policy Shift on North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions: A New Era of Support

Xi meets Kim - During this month’s high-level summit in Pyongyang, China’s leadership signaled a pivotal change in its stance on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The absence of any mention of denuclearization in the post-meeting statement by Beijing suggests a deliberate move away from its earlier position, which had emphasized the need for Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons. This shift has sparked debate about whether China is now embracing the idea of North Korea as a permanent nuclear power, a concept that has long been a point of contention in regional diplomacy.

A Contrast Between Past and Present

When Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un last convened in the North Korean capital in 2019, China had publicly advocated for a “positive and constructive role” in achieving the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That commitment, however, seems to have waned in recent months. A Chinese expert on Sino-North Korean relations noted that the current narrative surrounding China’s policy change is “mere media hype,” implying that the shift may not be as absolute as it appears. Nonetheless, the omission of denuclearization from the latest communiqué has raised eyebrows among analysts.

Beijing’s focus during the two-day summit appeared to center on maintaining stability and fostering cooperation with North Korea, rather than pressing for its nuclear disarmament. Tong Zhao, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, remarked that this represents “a very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea.” His assessment highlights how China’s approach has evolved to align more closely with Pyongyang’s strategic goals.

Historical Context of North Korea’s Nuclear Journey

North Korea’s path to becoming a nuclear state dates back to 1985, when it joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in exchange for access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Yet, the regime quietly developed its own nuclear arsenal, culminating in the detonation of its first nuclear device in October 2006. This marked a turning point, as Pyongyang withdrew from the NPT in January 2003, formally declaring its intent to pursue nuclear weapons.

Since that landmark event, North Korea has consistently sought international recognition of its nuclear status. The country’s constitutional amendments, including one in 2023, have institutionalized its nuclear capabilities, reinforcing the idea that the program is now a cornerstone of its national identity. Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korea’s leader, underscored this shift by calling America’s demands for denuclearization “an anachronistic dream” and asserting that Pyongyang’s nuclear program is “irreversible.”

Russia’s Role and China’s Strategic Calculus

While Russia has also moved to support North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, China’s long-term alignment with the regime is rooted in its economic and political influence. In 2023, Beijing and Moscow championed a dual-track strategy: encouraging Pyongyang to denuclearize while simultaneously working toward establishing a peace regime. However, Russia’s recent emphasis on strengthening ties with North Korea has led to a more pronounced abandonment of the denuclearization goal, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stating in July that “the technologies used by North Korea are the result of the work of its own scientists.”

China’s support for North Korea’s nuclear program has always been seen as a calculated move to maintain leverage over the United States. As Greg Scarlatoiu, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained, this support is part of a broader effort to ensure that Washington remains dependent on Beijing’s diplomatic and economic influence. The idea is that by backing Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, China can position itself as a key player in regional and global security dynamics.

Dependence and Influence

North Korea’s deep reliance on China for economic aid and trade has played a critical role in shaping its nuclear strategy. Before the recent Russian arms deals, China accounted for approximately 95 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade, underscoring its pivotal role in the regime’s survival. This economic dependency has allowed Beijing to exert significant control over Pyongyang’s actions, even as it gradually shifts its stance on denuclearization.

Analysts have pointed to the growing rivalry between China and Russia as a key factor in this policy shift. While both nations seek to influence North Korea, China’s long-standing relationship with the regime has given it an edge. As former Russian diplomat Georgy Toloraya observed, Russia serves as “an ambulance” during crises, while China is “the doctor who treats her day by day.” This metaphor suggests that China’s support is more foundational to North Korea’s stability than Russia’s intermittent aid.

Implications for Regional Stability

The decision to back North Korea’s nuclear program has far-reaching implications for regional security. With China now more openly accepting the idea of a nuclear North Korea, the focus of international diplomacy may shift toward managing the consequences of this status rather than eliminating it. This change also reflects a broader realignment in China’s foreign policy priorities, as it seeks to balance its relations with the United States and Russia.

While some argue that the shift is driven by competition with Moscow, others suggest it is a reflection of China’s strategic calculus. By securing North Korea’s nuclear program, Beijing may be reinforcing its position as a stabilizing force in the region, even as it allows Pyongyang to consolidate its power. This approach also positions China to play a central role in any future negotiations involving North Korea, ensuring its continued influence over the regime’s decisions.

Global Recognition and the Path Forward

North Korea’s nuclear status has been a source of global concern for decades, but its recent constitutional amendments signal a permanent entrenchment of this power. The regime’s insistence on maintaining its nuclear arsenal has led to a new era of geopolitical dynamics, where China and Russia act as key allies in supporting Pyongyang’s ambitions. This alignment has implications not only for the Korean Peninsula but also for the broader international order, as it challenges the traditional goals of nuclear nonproliferation.

Despite this shift, China’s commitment to denuclearization has never been entirely abandoned. The country has historically provided North Korea with nuclear materials and technology, which it views as a means of securing long-term influence. This duality—supporting both the development and the persistence of North Korea’s nuclear program—highlights the complexity of China’s strategic interests in the region.

As the world watches Beijing and Pyongyang’s evolving relationship, the question remains: has China finally accepted the idea of a nuclear North Korea, or is this a temporary adjustment in its strategy? The answer may shape the future of regional security and international diplomacy for years to come.